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Q1 2026 Bond Market Outlook: carry, flexibility, and diversification

Central bank policy divergence, the nearing end of the US rate cut cycle, and tight credit spreads are shaping a more complex—but opportunity-rich—environment. 
Our latest quarterly Bond Outlook highlights the key themes this quarter: 

• Heading to neutral? US policy cycle suggests better return potential in the belly of the curve, while UK uncertainty keeps the front end attractive. 
• Keep calm and carry on: with Eurozone rates stable and credit spreads tight, AAA CLOs have demonstrated resilient spread behaviour. 
• Diversification: why convertible bonds and emerging market local currency debt offer ways to diversify away from core holdings

Q1 Bond Market Outlook

Plus, our proprietary PriceStats® analysis details easing inflation, and its implications for bond markets.