Northern Trust argues that as the Federal Reserve debates shrinking its balance sheet, the United States increasingly needs alternative sources of Treasury demand to absorb rising government borrowing.
- Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Fed revives questions around reducing central bank ownership of Treasury securities.
- Aging demographics could gradually redirect trillions in household wealth from equities toward bonds and money-market instruments.
- Stablecoins already account for roughly $150bn in Treasury ownership, with potential for far larger demand if adoption accelerates.
- Even a modest allocation shift from U.S. Baby Boomer wealth could generate substantial new Treasury demand.
The fiscal problem itself remains unresolved. But Washington increasingly appears focused on engineering enough demand to keep financing costs manageable.
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