Rates Spark: Oil Is Rising, and Markets Cannot Ignore It Forever

ING Bank /

24-04-2026

ING’s latest rates strategy note argues equity markets remain complacent, while bond markets are already repricing the inflationary consequences of higher oil and a prolonged Hormuz disruption.

With Brent back above $100, ING sees both the ECB and BoE hiking at least twice this year if prices stay elevated.
A move to $110 oil could push 2Y EUR swaps to 3.0%, 2Y GBP above 4.4%, and the U.S. 10-year above 4.5%.
ING notes equities are still near highs, but warns that every extra day of disruption raises the chance of a sharp risk-off reversal.
Food inflation via fertilizer costs is flagged as a second-round risk.

Something may have to give: either energy stress eases—or markets force policymakers to respond.

Energy