Janus Henderson contends that oil price persistence—not headlines—will determine whether Middle East tensions become macro-relevant for emerging markets.
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Markets are pricing a temporary energy risk premium tied to shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; macro spillovers hinge on duration.
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Sustained higher oil prices would widen dispersion: exporters benefit, while importers face trade deterioration, inflation pass-through and wider spreads.
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So far, sovereign spread widening remains orderly and contained, with no broad risk-off dynamic.
Is differentiation about to intensify—or does stabilization cap the shock? The full note outlines the fault lines.
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