Against a backdrop of volatile geopolitics, tariffs, and policy shifts, the global economy enters 2026 with surprising resilience.

Growth forecasts have been revised upwards. Across regions, however, the outlook is marked by diverging paths.

For investors, we believe that asset allocation in 2026 will be shaped by the interplay of monetary policy, fiscal dynamics, and evolving market structures. Hence, flexibility and selectivity will be essential as markets adapt to greater fragmentation across the global economy.

Macroeconomic outlook

Despite initial jitters in the aftermath of the US administration’s ‘Liberation Day’, the global economy has proved surprisingly resilient. As we move into 2026, we see markets in a much more positive frame of mind about the growth outlook, but one that varies from place to place.

In Europe, the economy looks set to regather momentum, whereas in the US, genuine uncertainty persists about how the Federal Reserve will navigate the economic currents and political backdrop. China’s focus will be on medium-term gains while realigning its investment-driven growth strategy.

Outlook for financial markets

Looking ahead, fixed income markets are poised to benefit from ongoing central bank easing in 2026, with lower interest rates anticipated in the US and Europe. While sovereign debt yields may face upward pressure from rising government deficits, the environment remains supportive for credit markets.

Meanwhile, equity markets continue to be technology driven, with tech company earnings expected to grow robustly as AI fuels capital expenditures. In emerging markets, nations with strong tech sectors stand to benefit from lower US yields and dollar weakness, though export-oriented economies may face headwinds.

Disclaimer

Please note that articles may contain technical language. For this reason, they may not be suitable for readers without professional investment experience. Any views expressed here are those of the author as of the date of publication, are based on available information, and are subject to change without notice. Individual portfolio management teams may hold different views and may take different investment decisions for different clients. This document does not constitute investment advice. The value of investments and the income they generate may go down as well as up and it is possible that investors will not recover their initial outlay. Past performance is no guarantee for future returns. Investing in emerging markets, or specialised or restricted sectors is likely to be subject to a higher-than-average volatility due to a high degree of concentration, greater uncertainty because less information is available, there is less liquidity or due to greater sensitivity to changes in market conditions (social, political and economic conditions). Some emerging markets offer less security than the majority of international developed markets. For this reason, services for portfolio transactions, liquidation and conservation on behalf of funds invested in emerging markets may carry greater risk.