The featured report assesses the Supreme Court’s 6–3 ruling invalidating tariffs imposed under IEEPA, with implications for trade policy and Treasury supply
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The decision nullifies prior emergency-based duties, with potential refunds estimated near $150bn, effectively a one-off fiscal stimulus if ordered.
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The administration is moving to reinstate tariffs under alternative statutes, limiting medium-term relief for importers.
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Treasury yields could rise if large-scale refunds increase issuance needs, even as near-term volatility benefits select sectors and emerging markets.
Does legal clarity reduce uncertainty—or simply shift the mechanism of trade policy? The full brief outlines the market calculus.
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