A Synchronized Late-Cycle Upswing Faces Tight Policy Boundaries

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Robeco’s 2026 outlook maps a fleeting window where easing trade tensions, fiscal impulse and nascent productivity gains align into a rare cross-economy expansion. 

  • Global growth broadens as U.S. consumption holds, Europe re-accelerates and China edges toward domestic revival; inflation stays sticky but contained.

  • Central banks ease cautiously, with higher neutral rates and lingering fiscal dominance limiting how far rates can fall.

  • Equities retain upside in a melt-up scenario, but stretched valuations make earnings delivery critical; bonds face rising term premia.

For a clearer view of when this harmony could fracture—and how to position before it does—the full outlook lays out the paths ahead.

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