Global macro strategy - US disinflation continues

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We believe the US continues to be on a disinflationary path. Progress on disinflation stalled at the start of the year, delaying the Fed’s expected rate cutting cycle. But recent data have been more encouraging. Going forward, we believe three main factors will push inflation lower and toward price stability: declines in shelter inflation, declines in goods inflation and declines in non-shelter core services inflation.

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