Forecasting economic outcomes is a challenging exercise, even under steady conditions. Geopolitical events have only added to the complexity facing economies worldwide. The situation in Israel is rapidly unfolding, and remains much more of a humanitarian crisis than an economic one. The involved nations are fairly insular, and the conflict has not yet altered our forecasts. The economic risk vector will be through oil prices; should the conflict spread to other oil-exporting nations, the global economy could experience another round of energy-led inflation, raising recession risks.
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