We see the Fed on a path to raise rates far enough this year to hurt growth. The U.S. activity restart from the pandemic could grind to a halt in coming quarters. The Fed lifted rates by 0.75% in a rush to normalize policy, its biggest hike since 1994. Other central banks joined, sending shockwaves through markets. This week’s U.S. and European PMI updates will give an early read on June growth momentum and help gauge the easing of supply chain disruptions.
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