Weekly commentary: 2022’s big change: Fed hikes rates

The Federal Reserve will join other central banks in raising rates for the first time since the pandemic began. We expect a historically muted response to inflation. Stocks posted solid gains and bonds fell in 2021 – a pattern seen only in a few years since 1977. We see a repeat in 2022, albeit with moderating equity returns. U.S. employment data are in focus this week as they play into the timing and path of the Fed’s rate hikes. PMI data will give a read on the restart’s momentum.