Global Macro Policy Quarterly

A lot has happened with Covid case counts and vaccine deployment since we last published our forecasts in mid-March. Fortunately, the troubling case surges, severe lockdowns, and slow vaccine rollouts that characterized the transition from the first to the second quarter have since given way to much more encouraging developments. Over a fifth of the world’s population has received at least one vaccine dose, up from 3.0% in mid-March. The European Union, in particular, is quickly closing the gap with the US, reinforcing our upside-to-consensus view on European growth this year.