A new business cycle has begun, a cause for optimism both for the economy and for asset returns. But the traditional “early cycle playbook” may not apply this time around given the exceptional nature of monetary easing and the sheer scale of fiscal support in response to the coronavirus recession. In the past, cyclical stocks have been highly correlated with value stocks. But from the market’s March lows, cyclicals have recovered sharply vs. defensives, while value has struggled against growth.
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