Northern Trust’s U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook – Sprint to Stroll (Oct 2025) outlines how the U.S. economy transitions from post-pandemic acceleration to a steadier, below-potential pace.
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Momentum is easing: after robust mid-year growth driven by AI-related investment and pent-up demand, consumer spending is cooling and labor markets are softening.
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The ongoing government shutdown is compounding uncertainty, halting data releases and trimming Q4 GDP by up to 0.2 percentage points, while trade tensions with China risk reigniting supply-chain inflation.
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Northern Trust expects two more Fed cuts in 2025 and one in 2026, alongside an early halt to balance-sheet runoff—supporting liquidity but not a return to rapid growth.
Will the U.S. economy settle into a sustainable “stroll,” or are renewed shocks waiting ahead? Read the full report for macro forecasts and rate expectations.
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