NatWest’s Chief Economist Commentary reviews how UK and global growth momentum contrasts with stubborn inflation, complicating policy paths.
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UK: CPI hit 3.8% in July, the highest in 18 months, reducing the probability of a November rate cut; services inflation and energy costs remain sticky despite solid PMI-driven growth.
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US: Powell’s dovish Jackson Hole pivot raised cut expectations, but strong August business activity and tariff-driven input costs threaten inflation persistence.
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Eurozone: Inflation steady at 2% with PMIs improving, bolstering prospects for an ECB cut.
For deeper insights into growth-inflation trade-offs and market implications, read the full report
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