NatWest’s July 2025 macroeconomic update assesses the UK’s steady domestic recovery against a backdrop of policy divergence, housing market softness, and evolving global risks.
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UK growth in Q1 was broad-based, with rising household consumption, increased mortgage activity, and modest corporate credit expansion supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook.
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US labor data signal continued resilience, yet monetary tightening and expiring tariff pauses may delay further rate cuts.
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Euro area inflation ticks up slightly, but underlying fundamentals remain steady, keeping the ECB on a measured path.
For a deeper analysis of domestic strength amid global uncertainties, explore the full macro commentary.
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