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Although the ranking of the three blocks in the final round of the French elections came as a surprise relative to the first round and the polls (far-right RN ended in third position), the likeliest scenario we have been contemplating since the announcement – that none of the main groups would secure an absolute majority – has materialised. Another surprise though is that the most extreme factions taken together will not have the numbers to pass a motion of no confidence to stop a “central coalition” from governing.

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