Every year, Northern Trust’s Capital Market Assumptions Working Group develops forward-looking, historically aware forecasts for global economic activity and financial market returns — which drive our five-year asset class return expectations and inform our asset allocation decisions.
All of this comes together in the form of our long-term strategic asset class allocation suggestions, which are used by institutional and individual investors worldwide.
The populist movement of the past year has not dramatically changed the global economic outlook. Global equity returns are expected to remain below long-term historical averages over the next five years. But we do not think stocks will be overly burdened by elevated valuations and believe they are likely to remain attractive next to low-yielding fixed income asset classes. Meanwhile, we expect interest rates to move only modestly higher, while yield curves will not steepen materially.
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